Shanghai copper price fell back to show that there is a certain pressure on the top


Industry Dynamics



Last week, Shanghai copper's main contract fell sharply in 1808, indicating that there was some selling pressure at the top. The intraday trading was at 54080-53520 yuan/ton, and it closed at 53630 yuan/ton in late trading. The daily gain narrowed to 0.19%. At present, the price of copper is effectively stabilized on the moving average group, and the short-term rise pattern remains sound. In terms of the term structure, Shanghai Copper maintains a near-low positive line, and the Shanghai Copper 1807 contract and the 1808 contract have a positive spread of 180 yuan/ton.

On the external market, the Asian market's Lunong copper oscillations declined, including 15:35 Beijing time, 3 months Lun Tongbao reported US$7210/ton, which was down 0.43%, and the short-term copper price rose to near US$7200/ton. Trading caution. Positions, as of June 12th, London copper positions of 347,000, an increase of 1192 hand, Lun copper Masukura down, showing long and short differences increase, and the empty side temporary advantage.

On the macro level, the U.S. dollar index continued to fall under pressure and is currently trading at around 93.36, falling for two consecutive days as the Fed raises its interest rate boots. The current market shifts to focus on the European Central Bank meeting on interest rates, focusing on whether the European Central Bank issues a signal of a gradual rate hike in the future, which will weigh on the rebound of the US dollar index. In terms of industry, Bank of Montreal said that it raised its long-term expectation of copper price, and it is optimistic about the growth of renewable energy that drives demand growth.

In the market, on June 14, the spot price of Shanghai Electrolytic Copper was 60 yuan per ton for the current month's contract/ton - discounted at 10 yuan per ton, and the price for flat water copper was 53,270-53,400 yuan per ton. The spot market is still unable to buy, the spot price quoted in the past week has not been adjusted, the market maintained a price of 60-10 yuan yesterday. If the trader has the willingness to receive goods, he can push down the price of copper to premium water at 70 yuan/ton, good copper discount at 30 yuan/ton, and wet copper price at 120-110 yuan/ton. On the last trading day of the 1806 contract, the price difference between the two months also changed little. The market has ignored the impact of the spread on the delivery. As the supply of goods is sufficient and the buying power is weak, the trend of the disk is not clear. After the change of month, premium will probably increase.

Within days, Shanghai Copper's 1808 contract finished lower back to RMB 53,450/tonne. As the copper price continued to rise, it faced the risk of technical correction. However, the short-term copper market rebound pattern remained sound and the operation maintained a callback. It is suggested that the Shanghai copper 1808 contract can be backed by a dip of more than 53,000 yuan, and the target is concerned with a price of around RMB54,200.