Analysis of China's cable import and export status
The report combines various data of China's wire and cable import and export, from the introduction of China's Cable Import and export trade during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, the analysis of various data of China's Cable Import and export in 2018, the change of China's cable export pattern brought about by "one belt and one road", the change of China's cable export pattern brought by "one belt and one road", and The situation of cable import and export in China is analyzed in the future.
The report pointed out that the average annual growth rate of China's cable import and export trade in 2016-2019 is 1.8%, and the average annual growth rate of import and export trade volume is 2.5%. In 2018, China's cable import and export trade exceeded US$30 billion for the first time, reaching US$30.1 billion, up 7.5% year-on-year; exports increased by 6.9% and imports increased by 9.7%. In 2018, China's cable import and export trade volume was 2.97 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%. Exports grew by 2.4% and imports grew by -1.0%.
In 2018, the surplus of China-US cable import and export reached 3.8 billion US dollars. The Sino-US trade war has a more serious impact on China. Although the domestic cable commodity export to the United States can be rebalanced by means of entrepot trade, it will undoubtedly increase the procurement cost of US suppliers. The price advantage of China's cable will be significantly reduced. Similarly, due to the increase in tariffs, the US cable imports will also be affected. There is shrinkage.
2019, the United States was China's largest import and export country for cable trade, accounting for more than 16% of the total trade volume. The continuous escalation of Sino-US trade wars has had a significant impact on China's imports and exports in 2019. Although the changes in RMB interest rates and the cultivation of new markets have benefited import and export trade during the period, the above-mentioned positives cannot offset the negative effects brought about by the Sino-US trade war in the short term. It is expected that China's cable import and export trade will experience negative growth in 2019; The volume of export trade will be further reduced.
The decline of Sino-US cable trade has appeared in the period from January to June 2019, and there is no sign of improvement. This will be a "heavy" blow to some companies with the US as the main market. It is expected that the cable between China and the United States will enter in the next 1-2 years. Export trade will also decline; the export opportunities brought by the “Belt and Road” will gradually become prominent.
The “Belt and Road” covers Asia-Pacific, Europe and Asia, the Middle East and Africa, including 65 countries, with a total population of more than 4.4 billion, accounting for 63% of the world's population. The total economic output exceeds 20 trillion US dollars, accounting for the global economy. 30%, most of these countries are emerging economies and developing countries, which are generally in the period of economic development. The cable demand is in a long-term growth trend, but the regional opportunities will be different in the short term. It is expected that ASEAN and China Regional growth in Eastern Europe and West Asia is relatively stable, and growth will be significantly higher than the overall level of China's cable exports; China's cable export product structure needs to be upgraded.
Under the current new situation of international trade protectionism, the Chinese cable companies at the low end of the product value chain are increasingly difficult to maintain their extensive export growth model, Exports need to be upgraded from winning by quantity to winning by quality. In the nearly 30 years of global economic integration competition, some leading domestic cable enterprises have been able to develop and grow, and have already possessed the basis of technological progress and industrial upgrading. In the future, the export of high value-added products will be a direction in the future.